Question1:
The Railways Safety Standards Board (RSSB) developed in consultation with railway engineers a Safety Risk Model (SRM) for assessing the risk on railways experienced in the UK. The model is a combination of fault trees and event trees. Inference from this model suggests that the expected number of lives lost each year through derailments is 2.70. The RSSB have decided this is a tolerable level of risk. Identify and discuss two limitations implicit in this rational approach to risk management
Expect discussion to be based on two points from the following list:
\’unwanted effects\’ differ according to values and preferences
human activities and consequences are too complex to model
institutional structure is prone to organisational failure
assumes equal weight for magnitude and probabilities
tends to imply a distinction between experts and laypersons
the goal of risk minimisation itself is debatable: other possibilities include equity, fairness, flexibility or resilience
Question 2
Typically expert judgement is used within risk assessments to provide estimates of low frequency, high consequence events. Several methods are proposed for the elicitation of judgements from relevant experts.
Roger Cooke’s method for the elicitation of structured expert judgement makes use of two ideas, namely calibration and information. Define these terms and illustrate with an example. Describe how each is assessed and used with his method. Identify two difficulties in applying Cooke’s method in practice, or in using expert judgement in general, and discuss the associated consequences.
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